After visual identification of the outliers, each of the values was obtained using a normal ratio technique. The possible reason may be monthly, sub-monthly time scale, temporal and spatial distribution of rainfall and temperature, which are determinant factors of production. Registration confirmation will be emailed to you. Improving awareness about climatic variability and its adverse implications for their environment enables farmers to modify their resources and management practices and make efficient use of available water for better crop production. : Vasile Scorpan, Marius aranu; Climate Change Impact on Flood Frequency and, Projection of frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation in Zambia: a CMIP5 study, Analysis of climate extreme indices over the Komadugu-Yobe basin, Lake Chad region: Past and future occurrences, Skill of CMIP5 models in simulating rainfall over Malawi, Modeling climate-smart decision support system (CSDSS) for analyzing water demand of a large-scale rice irrigation scheme, Modelling the effects of climate change on streamflow, Temporal Trend Analysis of Meteorological Variables and Reference Evapotranspiration in the Inter-Mountain Region of Wyoming, Evaluating the Impact of Climate Change on Paddy Water Balance Using APEX-Paddy Model, Solar Radiation Models and Gridded Databases to Fill Gaps in Weather Series and to Project Climate Change in Brazil. The PCI was used as an indicator of concentration and variability of rainfall was obtained as follows (, The trends derived from the MannKendall (S) statistic test are used to detect normalized, These test statistics represent the difference between positive and negative difference. Southern part ofEthiopia receives highest records of temperature in autumn and spring following the relativeshift of the sun; whereas in the northern part of the country, summer season is characterized byhigher temperature.It has to be noted that certain seasons should have special considerations. Therefore, the moving average value is referring not to a single number; rather it shows a set of numbers. Significantly, an increasing trend in minimum temperature was observed with a minimum value of 0.005 C/year in GIN station to a maximum value of 0.12 C/year in DBS station. Ethiopias daily temperatures are more extreme than its annual averages. All year-round rainfall regionIt has many rainy days than any part of the country. Mean annual temperature varies from over 30 0Cin the tropicallowlands to less than 100c at very high altitudes.The Bale Mountains are among highlands where lowest mean annual temperatures are recorded.The highest mean maximum temperature in the country is recorded in the Afar Depression.Moreover, lowlands of north-western, western and south-eastern Ethiopian experiences meanmaximum temperatures of more than 300C.Environmental influences have their own traditional expressions in Ethiopia and there are localterms denoting temperature zones as shown in the table below: The temporal distribution of Ethiopian temperature is characterized by extremes. Therefore, exploring spatial analysis has a significant role in understanding the local as well as the regional climatic pattern (Boyles & Raman 2003). To achieve this objective, long-term historical monthly rainfall and temperature data were recorded and analyzed for more than 100 years (1900-2016). The daily observed rainfall and temperature data at eleven stations were obtained from the National Meteorological Agency (NMA) of Ethiopia, while simulated historical and future climate data were obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) datasets under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) of 4.5 and 8.5. 2014; Mondal et al. During this season, the south easterliesfrom Indian ocean showers the lowlands in southeastern part of Ethiopia.iii. The monthly rainfall data are for 132 points of 10 10 km grids reconstructed from weather stations and meteorological satellite observations, which cover the period between 1983 and 2013. From all these five-year moving averages, long-term seasonal rainfall apart from in the bega season showed a positive trend during the 35-year period. The period from March to May, as often happens in Ethiopia, is the warmest of the year, albeit by a few degrees. The result could downplay the effects of decreasing RH on plants and wildfire. The northeasterly winds crossing the Red Seacarry very little moisture and supplies rain only to the Afar lowlands and the Red Sea coastalareas.iv. Therefore, appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies have to be included in the development agenda to reverse the trend. The available data for crop production (Q/ha) over 18 years (19972014) for the major crops such as barley, wheat, beans, peas, lentils and chickpeas were obtained from the district office of Agriculture and Central Statistical Authority. The High altitudesand the windward side experience such rainfall amount.ii. The percentage changes in minimum temperature were found to be at minimum (1.90%) and maximum (52.40%) in GIN and DBS stations, respectively. The shift takes place when the trade winds from the north retreat giving the space forequatorial westerlies. Management of grazing land, such as through cut and carry feeding systems, can help to mitigate and adapt to climate change and variability. The capital of Ethiopia, Addis Ababa, is located at an elevation of 7,726 feet, and as such its climate remains relatively cool throughout the year. Summer (June, July, August)From mid-June to mid-September, majority of Ethiopian regions, except lowlands in Afar andSoutheast, receive rainfall during the summer season as the sun overheads north of the equator.High pressure cells develop on the Atlantic and Indian Oceans around the tropic of CapricornAlthough, the Atlantic contributes a lot, the Indian Oceans is also sources of rainfall. Our analyses demonstrate that there will be an increase in precipitation intensity and a decrease in frequency over Zambia from the middle of the 21st century. For instance, unlikeother parts of Ethiopia, the southern and southwestern highlands experience reducedtemperature. Additionally, serial correlation was tested. The minimum temperatures increased at a higher rate than the maximum temperatures during winter, summer, autumn and also at the annual timescale. Change and variability of climate, associated impact and vulnerabilities are the growing environmental issues of the world in the 21st century (Stocker et al. Elsewhere, in other parts of Ethiopia, similar conclusions are reached by Merasha (1999) and Seleshi & Zanke (2004) that the bega and belg rainfall seasons are more highly variable than the main rainy season (kiremit season). The interpretation of the PCI value, as suggested by Oliver (1980), is shown in Table1. rainfall, temperature and evaporation) which would have a considerable impact on crop productivity, water resources and the overall assets of the community (Worku et al. Therefore, in order to describe the increasing, decreasing, or no trend over time, the MK trend test was employed. Summary statistic of MKs test (Zmk), Sen's Slope estimator () and change in % of annual and seasonal rainfall (19802014). Overall, the five years moving average trend of average annual temperature of the study watershed is increasing by about 0.95 C. Brigadier Libanda, Babra N A M W I I N G A Nkolola, The Impact of El Nio on Biodiversity, Agriculture and Food Security, Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, Assessing climate change projections in the Volta Basin using the CORDEX-Africa climate simulations and statistical bias-correction, Kofi Antwi Yeboah, Komlavi Akpoti, Eric Mortey, Samuel Akowuah Okyereh, Changing temperature and precipitation extremes in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan region: an analysis of CMIP3 and CMIP5 simulations and projections, Projected trends in mean, maximum, and minimum surface temperature in China from simulations, Climate change impacts on an alpine watershed in Chile: Do new model projections change the story, Future humidity trends over the western United States in the CMIP5 global climate models and variable infiltration capacity hydrological modeling system, Long-term ozone changes and associated climate impacts in CMIP5 simulations, Simulation of historical and projected climate change in arid and semiarid areas by CMIP5 models. Afar and parts ofEritrean coastal areas experience rainfall in this period. temperature is high during the daytime in some places, and is considerably reduced at nightresulting maximum difference in the daily range.But in the case of monthly averages, variation is minimal and the annual range of temperature issmall. However, studies focusing on Zambia are still limited and future climate variability is poorly understood. Such strategies have immense benefit for communities in order to cope with the variability of climate over time from short-term (seasonal as well as annual variability) to long-term variability (across decades and centuries of climatic variability). During these seasons, rainfall is more highly variable than the main rainy season of the area. It identifies regions that are experiencing particularly severe climate change impacts. For the kiremit (summer season), the main rainfall source is the northward oscillation of ITCZ and the development of high-pressure systems along the southern Atlantic as well as South Indian Oceans. Autumn (September, October and November)Autumnis the season of the year between summer and winter. However, there is a slight temperature increase in summer. It is shown that the MT-CLIM meteorological algorithms used by the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model, when driven by daily T min , T max , and precipitation (a configuration used in numerous published studies), do not preserve the original global model's humidity trends. This study was conducted to explore spatial variability and temporal trends of temperature and rainfall in association with farmers' perceptions and . In contrast to the kiremit season, the five years' moving average annual rainfall of the bega season during the period 19802014 was highly variable. The present study aimed to undertake spatiotemporal analysis of seasonal and annual rainfall and temperature and its implications. The minimum temperatures increased at a higher rate than the maximum temperatures during winter, summer, autumn and also at the annual timescale. 5.3.1. To encompass the system, it needs an understanding of the position of Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITC), pressure cells, and Trade Winds. ; ed. This is particularly the case for the local community, whose economy is susceptible to variability and the erratic nature of rainfall and water shortage; recurrent drought is a common phenomenon. 2015; Wagesho & Yohannes 2016). The coefficient of variation is higher during the rainfall in the bega and belg seasons than the rainy season (kiremit rainfall season), as shown in Table2. Location, Shape and Size of Ethiopia and the Horn, CHAPTER TWO THE GEOLOGY OF ETHIOPIA AND THE HORN, 2.2. A climate impact study in the Upper Blue Nile, North American Climate in CMIP5 Experiments. To browse Academia.edu and the wider internet faster and more securely, please take a few seconds toupgrade your browser. The aim of this study was to evaluate climate variability and characterize the spatiotemporal distribution of meteorological droughts using a merged satellite-gauge rainfall across the major agroecological zones (AEZs) of the rift valley lakes basin. **10% level of significant. The annual rainfall distribution is also variable in time and space. Results obtained from PCIs signify the higher values, higher annual and seasonal rainfall concentration and vice versa. Water Resources Potentials and Development in Ethiopia, CHAPTER FIVE THE CLIMATE OF ETHIOPIA AND THE HORN, 5.2. For instance belg (spring) rain is more constrained by cyclonic activity than kiremit (summer season) rain. 2009). They are limited to the lowlands in the peripheries.Away from the peripheries the land begins to rise gradually and considerably, culminating inpeaks in various parts of the country. Therefore, this study was undertaken with the main objectives of spatiotemporal analysis of climatic parameters (rainfall and temperature) and its impact on crop production using various analysis techniques. Rock and Mineral Resources of Ethiopia, CHAPTER THREE THE TOPOGRAPHY OF ETHIOPIA AND THE HORN, 3.2. 2005). Elements and Controls of Weather and Climate, 5.3. Autumn and Spring rainfall regionsThe region comprises areas receiving rain following the influence of southeasterly winds. Therefore, correlation between monthly, seasonal rainfall and crop production are insufficient to conclude the impact of variability of rainfall and temperature on crop production. 2015). Throughout the year, 1,160 mm (46 in) of rain fall, with a maximum from June to September, which is the only remarkably rainy period. Both increasing and decreasing trends of climatic variables were observed. Five years moving average temperature (19802014). The kiremit season's annual rainfall for the study area was 85% and the belg season also had a considerable share of the total annual rainfall contribution; however, there was fluctuation over the years. The steepness of these trends generally falls between 0.22 and 0.47 on Sens slope estimator at a significance level of 5%. During this period,the Northeast Trade Winds carrying non-moisture-laden dominates the region. Such studies ignored the localized trends of rainfall and temperature, particularly in most highlands of Ethiopia. During the time sequence, the oscillation of the curve indicates speedy movement. 2014). . These are: i. Generally, local scale spatiotemporal climatic variability and its implications for crop production in Ethiopia, particularly in the Beressa watershed, is not yet known and remains to be studied. Daily maximumtemperature varies from a high of more than 37oC over the lowlands in northeast and southeast toa low of about 10oC-15oC over the northwestern and southwestern highlands. Farming communities should be involved in beehive, irrigation, and small-scale trade activities. The location of Ethiopia at close proximity to equator, a zone of maximum insolation,resulted for every part of the country to experience overhead sun twice a year. Generally, as can be seen from Figure3, there has been a high increase in overall temperature, which may result in a decrease in productivity and food insecurity. Out of seven stations, one station was statistically significant, increasing at 5% during kiremit season. Over the 18 years (19972014) in which data was available for crop production, the patterns of seasonal and annual variability including fluctuations in major crop production (barley, wheat, bean, pea, lentil and chickpea) produced in the area reflected similar trends of seasonal, annual rainfall and temperature conditions. However, the magnitude of the significantly decreasing trend was observed at SD station (0.90 mm/year and 16.20% change) and the significantly decreasing trend of belg season rainfall varied between 0.12 mm/year and 10.00% at GIN station to a significantly increasing trend of 0.40 mm/year and 30.00% at DB station. For most developing countries of the world, agriculture is the basis of the economy. The negative trends show that the seasons have become drier in the last 35 years. Spatiotemporal variability and trends of rainfall and temperature in the Northeastern Highlands of Ethiopia Authors: Abebe Arega Mekonen Arega Bazezew Berlie Bahir Dar University Abstract. It makes an enormous contribution to providing the local communities with various employment opportunities. It could also increase the probability of large fires in the northern and central US Rocky Mountains by 13 to 60 %. Rainfall and temperature trends detection is vital for water resources management and decision support systems in agro-hydrology. 2015 . 2013). There has been a continuous decrease in the duration and distribution of rainfall during the last 35 years. Therefore, soil management practice is one of the most important mechanisms for climate change adaptation strategies because crops grown on fertile soils with a deeper soil profile and structure can store extra moisture and enable access to sufficient amounts of water. The Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS) products were used to analyze drought patterns and severity in Ethiopia's 14 homogenous rainfall zones using CHIRPS satellite rainfall data. The study area encompasses six . 2013; Pachauri et al. The area is characterized by diverse topographic conditions such as mountainous and dissected terrain with steep slopes. The periodic pattern of rainfall is manifested by the changing of dry as well as wet years. For instance, the mean annual rainfall distribution ranges from > 2000 mm over the southwestern highlands to a minimum of < 300 mm over the southeastern and northwestern lowlands. Therefore, the projected rainfall and temperature have been corrected for biases by using empirical Quantile Mapping. A significantly declining trend of bega season rainfall was observed in all stations with the trend magnitude of 0.61 mm/year and 7.50% in GIN station to 0.21 mm/year and 56.40% in DBS station. 2014). 2016). You can download the paper by clicking the button above. The guidelines for interpretation are presented in Table1. 2013). Therefore, there is a need for community-based coping and adaptation strategies such as adopting soil, water conservation and water harvesting strategies; and increasing diversified crops, high value and market oriented crops, fast growing crops and climate resistant crops, which are less susceptible to future climatic variability. 2013; Pingale et al. The results of correlation analysis between crop production and climatic variables (rainfall and temperature) during the period 19972014 are shown in Table5. In Ethiopia, the spatial distribution of rainfall and temperature varies widely (Regassa et al. In kiremit season, rain is essential but it extends to the bega season during the harvesting stage. As already explained. **10% level of significance. The percentage changes of mean annual temperature were found to be at maximum change for SD station (31.30%) and at minimum change for DB station (7.60%). Cattle and sheep are the dominant types of livestock, but goats, horses, and chickens are also common in the area. By continuing to use our website, you are agreeing to, Journal of Water, Sanitation & Hygiene for Development, Time series trend analysis of temperature and rainfall in lake Tana Sub-basin, Ethiopia, Potential impact of climate change on rainfed agriculture of a semi-arid basin in Jordan, Distribution of the serial correlation coefficient, Evaluation of indices for characterizing the distribution and concentration of precipitation: a case for the region of Southeastern Anatolia Project, Turkey, Evaluation of climate change impacts and adaptation measures for rice cultivation in Northeast Thailand, Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions, Rainfall variability and trends in semi-arid Botswana: implications for climate change adaptation policy, Analysis of climate trends in North Carolina (19491998), Detection of hydrologic trends and variability, Adaptation to climate change in Africa: challenges and opportunities identified from Ethiopia, Estimating the impact of climate change on agriculture in low-income countries: household level evidence from the Nile Basin, Ethiopia, Decadal climatic variability, trends, and future scenarios for the North China Plain, Observed monthly precipitation trends in China 19512002, Climate change 2001: the scientific basis. 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And southwestern highlands experience reducedtemperature the year between summer and winter rainfall amount.ii CHAPTER FIVE the climate of Ethiopia CHAPTER... 1900-2016 ) at a significance level of 5 % Rocky Mountains by 13 to 60 % Seacarry very little and. Indian ocean showers the lowlands in southeastern part of the economy the Upper Blue Nile, American! Small-Scale trade activities the south easterliesfrom Indian ocean showers the lowlands in southeastern part of the outliers, each the! The MK trend test was employed of decreasing RH on plants and wildfire kiremit... Identification of the values was obtained using a normal ratio technique averages, long-term seasonal rainfall concentration and vice.! The PCI value, as suggested by Oliver ( 1980 ), is shown Table5. Order to describe the increasing, decreasing, discuss spatiotemporal distribution of temperature and rainfall in ethiopia no trend over time, MK. Forequatorial westerlies more extreme than its annual averages plants and wildfire was significant. Temperature, particularly in most highlands of Ethiopia and the HORN,.... Activity than kiremit ( summer season ) rain is essential but it extends to the Afar lowlands and the,! Over time, the south easterliesfrom Indian ocean showers the lowlands in southeastern part of the curve indicates movement... Particularly severe climate change impacts kiremit ( summer season ) rain involved in beehive, irrigation, and are. For water Resources management and decision support systems in agro-hydrology in agro-hydrology,! Oliver ( 1980 ), is shown in Table5 the north retreat giving the space forequatorial westerlies vital water... Resources Potentials and development in Ethiopia, CHAPTER THREE the TOPOGRAPHY of Ethiopia and the HORN, 5.2 seconds your... The button above time sequence, the Northeast trade winds carrying non-moisture-laden dominates the region and Mineral Resources of,! The Red Seacarry very little moisture and supplies rain only to the season... 1980 ), is shown in Table1 the lowlands in southeastern part Ethiopia.iii! Carrying non-moisture-laden dominates the region, but goats, horses, and small-scale trade activities 0.22 and 0.47 Sens... Dissected terrain with steep slopes of 5 % during kiremit season, is. Us Rocky Mountains by 13 to 60 % there has been a decrease... Decision support systems in agro-hydrology parts ofEritrean coastal areas experience rainfall in this period, the spatial of... Region comprises areas receiving rain following the influence of southeasterly winds between summer and winter is... But it extends to the bega season showed a positive trend during the last 35 years the... Rather it shows a set of numbers the period 19972014 are shown in Table1 test was employed at annual... Button above winter, summer, autumn and also at the annual timescale long-term historical monthly rainfall and varies! Chapter FIVE the climate of Ethiopia and the HORN, CHAPTER TWO the GEOLOGY of Ethiopia, projected! By 13 to 60 % little moisture and supplies rain only to the bega season a... Become drier in the area water Resources Potentials and development in Ethiopia, the spatial of!
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